Eastern Conference First Round:
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Charlotte Hornets: Pistons in 6
The Pistons are the favorites to win this series. They play a brand of basketball similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder of last year, that is, a great gritty defense with amazing depth to complement any future issues. They posted the second-best defensive rating in the league at 108.9. The Hornets, on the other hand, will be playing freely, without any expectations. They shoot a lot of 3-pointers, making 16.3 per game, the most in the league. LaMelo or Knueppel could make two or three games interesting by getting hot beyond the arc. The Pistons’ physical style of play will be the key to winning this series, as Charlotte ranks in the bottom five in paint points per game, and the Pistons are the No. 1-ranked team in paint points.
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers: Celtics in 4
In a matchup that has an intense history, the Boston Celtics will face the weakened Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. The Celtics shattered expectations, with some analysts predicting before the season that they wouldn’t even make the playoffs.
But Jaylen Brown has stepped up so much that, at one point, he was in the MVP conversation for his efforts this season. That, compounded with Jayson Tatum coming back less than a year from his Achilles injury and playing like he hasn’t skipped a beat, makes the Celtics look like one of the most formidable teams in the league.
The 76ers have dealt with crucial injuries all season from all of their star players — Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and, most recently, Joel Embiid. A battle-wounded 76ers team is in no shape to beat the second-rated offense in the league, according to Basketball-Reference.com. With the Celtics’ depth, combined with the mind of Joe Mazzulla, I have the Celtics sweeping in the first round.
(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks: Hawks in 7
In the first round, the No. 3-seeded New York Knicks will face off against the No. 6-seeded Atlanta Hawks. In a veterans-versus-the-next-generation bout, my prediction is that the Hawks will take the series in seven games. The young core of Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson has been on an explosive tear at the end of the regular season, going 19-6 in its last 25 games.
With the pivotal addition of Jonathan Kuminga at the trade deadline, pace is going to be the major deciding factor of the series. The Hawks have the fifth-highest pace in the league, while the Knicks rank 27th out of 30, according to Basketball-Reference.com. With the surge in production from Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the game-changing impact that Jalen Johnson has in any game he plays, the Knicks are going to have a hard time slowing the pace to fit their comfort zone.
However, this isn’t to say the Knicks are just going to roll over and die. In the NBA, they rank third in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating this season. They are a really well-rounded team, and with the playoff experience of names like Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, I believe they’ll take it to a Game 7, where we’ll see gritty, intense basketball.
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors: Raptors in 7
Raptors in seven. They have a top-five defender in the game with Scottie Barnes, who can guard any position 1 through 5 and will be able to cover any player on the Cavs. This should be a series where each team has one X-factor player who can swing the series. For the Cavs, James Harden still needs to prove he can perform in the playoffs when it matters most, especially with their lack of depth for their bigs. The pressure will be on him to play his best. For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram is the X-factor that the league has forgotten about, a consistent scorer who can provide some leadership for a young team while quietly becoming a sound defender for the sixth-best defense in the league. Defense feels more trustworthy than offense in this series, Raptors in seven games.
Western Conference First Round:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Play-In Winner: Thunder in 4
Oklahoma City begins its path to defending its title and should continue its dominance against whichever play-in team it plays. The Thunder returned everyone from its championship roster and had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turn in another MVP-caliber performance this season, setting the stage for what should be another dominant postseason run. To make another deep run, Jalen Williams will have to return to the superstar-caliber form he reached last season after an injury-riddled regular season.
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Portland Trail Blazers: Spurs in 5
The Spurs are simply just more talented than the Trail Blazers, and I can easily see this being a sweep, but I think that the Spurs’ lack of experience could cause them to slip up for one game, with this series ultimately being a gentleman’s sweep. It will be the first playoff series for six of the 9 players in the Spurs’ rotation. The Spurs have been dominant when Victor Wembanyama is on the floor, posting a 50-14 record when he plays, and I don’t see the dominance ending here. Deni Avdija will be an interesting watch in this series. With everyone’s eyes on their Play-In Tournament game against the Phoenix Suns, he put the whole world on notice dropping 41 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists. People questioned if his constant rim pressure and free throw attempts would be able to translate to the postseason, but if the play-in was any indicator, he should still have success. Unfortunately for Avdija and Portland, they have to go against the best paint defender in the world in Wembanyama.
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves: Nuggets in 6
The Timberwolves continue to be the toughest team to predict over the last three seasons, making the conference finals in back-to-back seasons. This is the year that the streak ends. The Nuggets head into the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, and they’re the healthiest they’ve been all season, as the only person on the injury report is Peyton Watson, who enjoyed a breakout season before his hamstring injuries. Denver is going to do whatever it takes to make sure the ball isn’t in Anthony Edwards’ hands and will be fine with letting others beat them. The Timberwolves may try to do the same thing with Nikola Jokic, but we’ve seen how that story goes, and I trust Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon more than anyone on Minnesota besides Edwards because they’ve shown that they can step up in the biggest moments. The Timberwolves are not going to make it easy at all, and out of respect for what they did in the last two seasons, I believe they will win at least two games.
(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets: Rockets in 6
The Los Angeles Lakers will be at a big disadvantage without their star players Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, leaving LeBron James to lead a depleted Lakers roster against a very talented Houston Rockets team. Houston has been one of the top defensive teams all season, with Amen Thompson at the head of the snake, and Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to create easy offense without Doncic and Reaves. If Doncic can find his way back onto the court late in the series, L.A. can push the series to seven games, but otherwise, Houston should make easy work of L.A. in six.
Eastern Conference Second Round:
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (5) Toronto Raptors: Pistons in 6
This should be a gritty series with two teams that boast great defenses. The Pistons are a team that thrives off of turnovers, but the Raptors have two lengthy defenders in Barnes and Ingram that could cause major issues for cross-court passes. The biggest factor for the Pistons to win against the Raptors is the play of Cade Cunningham. He has been excellent against them all season, putting up 31 points and nine assists over these games. Toronto’s lack of rebounding, ranking 24th in the league, will be their downfall, as Jalen Duren should be able to dominate on the glass.
(2) Celtics vs. (6) Hawks: Celtics in 6
In one of the most exciting matchups of the playoffs, there will be fireworks in the second round with the Boston Celtics facing off against the Atlanta Hawks. Similar to the previous matchup for the Hawks, their fast-paced play will be an intriguing factor due to the Celtics being rated the “slowest” team in the league.
A battle of playstyles, this bout will come down to how much of an impact the supporting cast can make in clutch moments. Viewers have seen the Celtics’ bench dismantle a potential playoff team in the Orlando Magic in a game the Magic had to win.
I think the overwhelming options of the Celtics will prove to be too much for the young Hawks, but I think this series will still make great TV. During the season, they split their encounters, and I think this series will be similar, going 4-2, with the Celtics winning and advancing to the Eastern Conference finals.
Western Conference Second Round:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Houston Rockets: Thunder in 6
Oklahoma City won the regular-season series against Houston two games to one, and this has the chance to be a very close-knit series. OKC’s top-ranked defense will pose a great problem for Houston’s isolation-oriented offense, which ranked 21st in assists per game this season. With an all-time talent like Kevin Durant leading the Rockets, Luguentz Dort and OKC’s other perimeter defenders will have a lot on their plates to nullify the shot-making ability of Durant and the Rockets. The Thunder bench will serve them well as the postseason goes on. One thing they have benefited from all season has been their ability to plug and play their guys as they see fit.
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (3) Denver Nuggets: Spurs in 7
This series is a coin flip and has a really good chance to be the best series of the entire playoffs. I originally planned to go with the Nuggets, but the Spurs check almost every box. They are top five in both offensive and defensive ratings, have the third-best win percentage in the clutch (66.7%) and have a 7-foot-5 alien that can challenge Nikola Jokic as the best player in the series in Victor Wembanyama. The only thing they lack is playoff experience, but will Wembanyama show that if you are a one-of-one type of player, you don’t need experience?
While their offense is still really good with Jokic and Jamal Murray on the court together (130.6 offensive rating), what worries me about Denver is that they are bottom 10 in the league in defensive rating and always rely on timely stops in close games. How long can you live and die by that? It has to eventually come back to bite you, right?
It may be tested a little in the first round, but especially in the second round, the shot-making from deep is going to be key for San Antonio, especially for Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, whose jump shooting will be put under a microscope for the first time in their careers. If they aren’t making shots and losing confidence, that could swing the series. Wembanyama’s defense will most likely keep them in every game, but what will happen in the clutch? Luckily for the Spurs, they don’t have to solely rely on their young guards. They have 2022-23 Clutch Player of the Year and two-time All-Star De’Aaron Fox, who will relieve a lot of pressure and be counted on to produce more than he did in the regular season, where he averaged 18.6 points per game. This series will show who can rise to the occasion and who will have to take a hard look at their game at the end of it.
Eastern Conference Finals:
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (2) Boston Celtics: Celtics in 6
The Boston Celtics boast one of the most well-rounded teams when looking at statistics such as offensive and defensive efficiency. They have the second-highest offensive efficiency in the league, which makes sense when considering that they are one of the most methodical teams in the NBA. They rank in the top five in both rebounding and 3-point shots made, averaging 46.3 rebounds per game and recording 1,268 3-pointers made, according to NBA statistics.
The Celtics also maintained the fourth-most efficient defense in the league, trailing only Oklahoma City, the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons, according to Databallr.com. These efficiency numbers are higher than last season’s and on par with the numbers they produced the year they won the championship. The Celtics’ strength lies in their ability to convert rebounds into points and their outstanding ability to lock in on both ends of the floor. Having the lowest turnover rate in the league shows they command the floor by rarely making mistakes.
Where the Celtics falter is in their isolation-heavy nature. Because the team has so many players who can create their own shots, if they are forced into bad shots or repeatedly reset due to a strong defense like Detroit’s, they can find themselves in a low field-goal range and needing someone to play the hero. The Celtics are tied for the second-lowest assists per game at 24.6, according to NBA statistics.
This, in conjunction with the fact that they rank 28th out of 30 teams in steals per game at 7.1, shows they rarely deviate from the game plan coach Joe Mazzulla draws up. This lack of taking chances, or gambling defensively, reinforces the isolation-heavy style. If they have to go bucket-for-bucket with a team that can’t miss, they could find themselves in deep waters.
In the Eastern Conference finals matchup between the Celtics and the Pistons, I have the Celtics winning in six games based on their capabilities on both sides of the court. With Cade Cunningham returning from a collapsed lung and carrying much of the offensive load, the Celtics are a well-oiled machine that can dismantle any team in the league when their X-factors are firing on all cylinders. The Celtics’ depth, their ability to stick to their style of play and their playoff experience are all likely to shine in this year’s Eastern Conference finals.
Western Conference Finals:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs: Thunder in 7
OKC did exactly what was expected of them all season, dominating in all facets of the game. Getting to the Western Conference finals is no different. Their top-ranked defense will be firing on all cylinders, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein rebounding and protecting the paint, while Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso lock down the perimeter.
On offense, they will continue to lean on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has continued to do everything asked of him, from making timely clutch buckets to creating open looks for his teammates. In order to elevate the Thunder to the level they were at last season, they will need Jalen Williams to return to form. His points per game dropped from 21.6 to 17.1 and he has seen less shooting volume compared to his previous season. While this can be attributed to his injury history this season, the Thunder will need their second option healthy to take some attention away from Gilgeous-Alexander and ready to meet the big moments a long playoff run can bring. Oklahoma City will need to flip the script against a San Antonio team that plagued them in the regular season, as it was the only team to beat them multiple times.
If the Spurs make it here, that means they are clicking on all cylinders and have proved that you don’t need playoff experience if you have the right pieces. Victor Wembanyama was holding down the paint and dominating on offense, De’Aaron Fox elevated his game in the biggest moments, Stephon Castle was able to score at all three levels while playing elite point-of-attack defense and they got good production from Dylan Harper off the bench with a splash of big games and moments. What San Antonio has over Oklahoma City is that they are only one of two teams that has defeated them multiple times this season, and they beat them four times. Regular-season matchups aren’t always a great indicator of who will win a playoff series, but if you beat a team four times in a season, that shows that you have what it takes to compete with them. Stephon Castle is going to have a lot on his plate trying to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but it’s going to have to be a team effort if they want to advance to the Finals.
Ultimately the Thunder get the job done and return to the NBA Finals for the second straight season.
NBA Finals:
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (2) Boston Celtics: Thunder in 7
To push a series to seven games, the Celtics will have to win an away game against one of the best home-court advantages in the league in Oklahoma City. For Boston to take a game or two in a hostile environment, Brown and Tatum will have to continue the great performances we’ve seen from them these past postseasons, but to push this Thunder squad, they’ll have to get major contributions from role players like Payton Pritchard and Derrick White. Boston, being at the top of the league in three-point percentage, will need their shooters to stay consistent and make the shots they’ve been known to make throughout the regular season. Oklahoma City’s frontcourt duo of Holmgren and Hartenstein will pose problems for Boston as the series progresses, and Boston will need Tatum to continue putting up big rebounding numbers to help their big men against a big and tough Thunder frontcourt.
Overall, the series will come down to whichever supporting cast puts together the best series. As you go down the depth charts of these two teams, Oklahoma City has the talent on their bench to outlast the Celtics role players. The Thunder bench outscored Boston’s by five points this past regular season. The Thunder are a team that will kill you in waves. With Game 7 being in Oklahoma City, all it takes is two bad possessions from the opponent, and the momentum is all on their side. The key to winning the series for Oklahoma City will be their frontcourt, particularly offensively. It’s well known how dominant Holmgren can be defensively, but he will need to stay consistent and limit his mistakes for OKC to repeat as champions.
The Thunder defeat the Celtics in epic game seven fashion and win back-to-back NBA Finals. They become the first team to repeat as NBA champions since the 2018 Golden State Warriors and are now in the conversation to be the NBA’s next dynasty.
