In the time left before the caucuses, Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are working to grab all the possible votes for the Iowa caucuses.
According to ABC News, as of Jan. 12th Sanders was up five points against Clinton.
This poll could mean nothing though – with Martin O’Malley still in the race, the results are unpredictable.
O’Malley and his supporters are in an unusual situation, he has barely exceeded five percent according to the New York Times.
If O’Malley is unable to reach 15 percent of the votes, hit supporters will be ruled “nonviable,” then be up for grabs by any other candidate.
When supporters arrive at the caucuses they will be divided by candidate, if at that point O’Malley does not reach the 15 percent limit, his supporters are then free to choose which candidate to back-up.
This will then initiate a chaotic rat race where Sanders, Clinton and their campaigns fight over O’Malley’s 1,700 supporters. Which is only about four percent of supporters, but could make all the difference.
“It is unclear whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders has more backing among O’Malley supporters,” stated the New York Times in an article.
It seems regardless of the current data the results of the Iowa caucus lies on the fate of O’Malley supporters. His predicted inability to reach 15 percent before Feb. 1st makes his supporters a vital aspect of the caucuses. As well as Clinton and Sanders’ ability to prepare to grab O’Malley’s, most likely inevitably, nonviable voters in the last minutes of the caucuses.
If O’Malley was unable to reach 15 percent voting, the New York Times mentioned two important factors for that could lead someone to believe Sanders could win the nomination.
The first being, “If an O’Malley supporter is wearing a pro-environment button, a Sanders supporter would describe the Vermont senator’s opposition to a proposed oil pipeline across Iowa, which Mrs. Clinton has not taken a stand on.”
The second, nominating Sanders would prolong O’Malley’s time for nomination.
Although, Taylor Van De Krol, the Democratic chairman of Jasper County said to the New York Times, “I have a feeling and assumption it’s Hilary.”
“Clinton said Sunday that won’t be necessary because she will ultimately win the Democratic nomination. Even if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire — where he is ahead in polls,” stated USA Today in an article.
Although winning the infamous Iowa caucus does not necessarily determine or predict the outcome of the actual election, it can give Sanders or Clinton the boost or setback that will make or break each campaign. The most candidates can do is prepare and develop strategic last minute ways to snag possible votes – which are clearly going to become available looking at O’Malley’s numbers.
For us at The Recorder, it’s unclear what will happen at the caucuses with Clinton and Sanders currently neck-in-neck – as many others are probably still unable to say confidently who will be the ultimate winner here.