Rejoice sports fans, it’s finally that time of the year, the time when you can sit on the couch and watch sports in the middle of the afternoon on a weekday, the time you saved all those sick days (skip work) for, the time where you spend weeks obsessing over a bracket only for a Cinderella team to swoop in and crush your dreams. This time of year is perfectly named to describe the feeling: it’s March Madness.

With Selection Sunday finally out of the way, the field of 68 set and brackets flying out of printers, let’s break down the safe bet, bust and potential sleeper pick of this year’s tournament.

Safe Bet:

(1) Duke- Zion Williamson. I really don’t feel like there’s a need to explain myself any further, but if I must, I’ll try my best. After getting sidelined with a knee injury, the consensus number one pick in this year’s NBA Draft is back and primed to continue his dominance in the tournament. He’s connected on 69 percent of his shots from the field and has made defenders look foolish while averaging 22.1 points per game. Plus, they have R.J Barret, Cam Redish and Tre Jones to pair with him. With an impressive victory over Syracuse and a tight win in a rematch against North Carolina in the ACC tournament, it would be hard to bet against the other Blue Devils winning it all.

Bust:

(6) Villanova- The Wildcats are not the same team of old. They’ve managed to maintain a similar rate of success this season despite the losses of last year’s leading scorers (Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson) but have yet to have a defining win. Their first-round matchup may prove to be the hardest to get past for the Wildcats, as they take on eleventh-seeded St. Mary’s that is fresh off a huge upset over Gonzaga in the West Coast Championship. The history between the two teams makes the game even more exciting. Fans may remember the last time the Gaels and Wildcats faced off in the tournament when St. Mary’s pulled off a huge upset over the then nine-seeded Villanova in the 2010 tournament. The Gaels have gotten hot at the right time, and look to be spoilers of a potential three-peat for the reigning champs.

Sleeper Team:

(12) Murray State- Hands down the best matchup in the first round comes in a five versus 12 seed battle, as Ja Morant of Murray State and Markus Howard of Marquette face each other in Hartford this Thursday. While Marquette may have the higher seed, Morant might be the most explosive guard in the tournament. He’s averaged 24.6 points per game while leading the Racers to their first tournament bid since 2012. If they can get past the lights out three-point shooting of Howard that helped bring Marquette to the fifth seed, the field is wide open for the Racers to go on a tear.