By Max Kyburz

Best Picture:

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Who Should Win: Black Swan
Who Will Win: The King’s Speech

Seeing as how it’s top banana at just about every awards ceremony already, I’m banking on The King’s Speech winning this Sunday. It seems to be a no brainer; it’s already won the Director’s Guild of America award for best direction, and it’s not often that winner of that award does not grab the top Oscar. Plus, it’s the kind of movie the Academy drools after – it’s a pompous foreign-set period piece that’s inspirational without turning into a Hallmark Channel movie (but they seem to like those, hence A Beautiful Mind’s victory in 2001). If there’s gonna be an upset win, David Fincher’s The Social Network will be the victor. After all, it’s the movie that is said to “define this generation.” If I had it my way, Black Swan would win. No disrespect to The King’s Speech, but it’s a movie that floats purely because of the performances. The Social Network is a couple edits away from being absolutely perfect, but no nominee had more impact on me than Black Swan. If it wins, it’ll be the first time a cerebral, mind bending thriller wins (and the first horror movie to win since The Silence of the Lambs), which is a triumph in of itself. Say what you want about the movies themselves, but Black Swan and Inception will remain important films if only for how they messed with audience’s heads and still made a splash at the box office. For a slow year, Hollywood managed to score some points.

Best Achievement in Directing:

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
The Coen Brothers, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

Who should win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Who will win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

I’m still feeling raw about the fact that Fincher’s Zodiac from 2007 got absolutely no love from the Academy, especially Fincher’s masterful direction. The man is one of slick style, most visibly realized in Se7en and Fight Club. The Social Network is hardly Fincher’s best film, but it’s got such a coolness about it that you have to give it to the guy. If anything, he should at least get it as a consolation prize for not being recognized until Forrest Gump 2, I mean, Benjamin Button came out. If he were nominated, Christopher Nolan deserves the win more than anyone, considering how much of Inception depended on a director’s vision. That’s something you can hardly say about Tom Hooper’s work with The King’s Speech. He did an alright job with it, but it’s a movie that depends more on its actors than its direction. But that hardly matters to the Academy – they’ve given awards to much less deserving winners.

Actor in a Leading Role:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix, I’m Still Here
Who will in: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Yep. I mean, think about it – the Oscars are, for the most part, predictable to the point of boredom. A surprise victory from a non-nominee is just what the ceremony needs to get people to talk about everything except who was wearing what and how awful the opening monologue was. And who better to do it than the one guy who fooled more people than Sacha Baron Cohen? Phoenix delivered perhaps the funniest performance of 2010, especially with the knowledge that his whole “Matisyahu-on-heroin” phase was an act. But alas, the Oscars are easy to predict in every non-technical category, and so Colin Firth will win. It’s inevitable – his performance is phenomenal, there isn’t an award he hasn’t already won for his turn as the stuttering Prince-going-on-King, and he’s been around long enough to finally get his due. Plus, characters with disabilities? Oh, does the Academy love those. Unless you’re Cuba Gooding Jr. in Radio. (Seriously, can’t we get him to send that Oscar back? As soon as possible would be great)

Actress in a Leading Role:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Who should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Who will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Again, the buzz is what secures the win. Natalie Portman deserves every bit of hype she’s been getting for her turn as Nina in Black Swan; it’s a role most actresses go through their entire career hoping to play. Natalie’s already somewhat of a veteran (having been acting in films since she was 13), yet she’s still young enough for her performance to be completely viable. Considering her petite figure and her resume full of soft-spoken, far from intense characters, Black Swan solidifies her capabilities as an actress. It’s such a good performance, yet her opponents hardly lack in quality; Jennifer Lawrence’s turn in Winter’s Bone is well controlled, and Nicole Kidman embodies maternal pain in Rabbit Hole. Annette Bening is always a pleasure to see, yet her role in The Kids Are All Right is nothing breathtaking. I have yet to see Blue Valentine, but I have no doubt that Michelle Williams is anything but spectacular.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Who should win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Who will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

No matter how many other great actors he’s rubbing shoulders with in his films, Geoffrey Rush always comes out as the most memorable part of every movie he’s in. He stole every scene of Shakespeare in Love, Pirates of the Caribbean, Mystery Men, Munich, etc., even though he wasn’t the top billing. Same goes for The King’s Speech; he is the only British actor who could have acted alongside Colin Firth and not be completely blown off the screen. His role as Firth’s voice coach is absolutely indispensable. I have yet to see the Fighter, but Christian Bale deserves the win, and not just because he was temporarily anorexic.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Who should win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Who will win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

I’m pretty sure nobody saw Animal Kingdom, hence why Jacki Weaver isn’t getting any buzz (and therefore won’t win), but she still delivers the best performance of that terribly overlooked Australian import. Her nomination is partly a “Just For Being Old” nomination, but it’s such a discreetly venomous performance that she could have easily won had she not been up against a girl fifty years her junior. Yes, Hailee Steinfeld will most certainly win for her role as eloquent, headstrong Mattie Ross in True Grit. As much as the Academy loves the Physically Disabled, and the Slightly Mentally Disabled, they do love their Young’ns. Steinfeld gives a strong performance for such a young girl, but I feel that her absolute best work is still ahead of her.